Exponential and moment inequalities for U-statistics

A Bernstein-type exponential inequality for (generalized) canonical U-statistics of order 2 is obtained and the Rosenthal and Hoffmann-J{\o}rgensen inequalities for sums of independent random variables are extended to (generalized) U-statistics of any order whose kernels are either nonnegative or canonicalComment: 22 page

Evidence for a nuclear compartment of transcription and splicing located at chromosome domain boundaries

The nuclear topography of splicing snRNPs, mRNA transcripts and chromosome domains in various mammalian cell types are described. The visualization of splicing snRNPs, defined by the Sm antigen, and coiled bodies, revealed distinctly different distribution patterns in these cell types. Heat shock experiments confirmed that the distribution patterns also depend on physiological parameters. Using a combination of fluorescencein situ hybridization and immunodetection protocols, individual chromosome domains were visualized simultaneously with the Sm antigen or the transcript of an integrated human papilloma virus genome. Three-dimensional analysis of fluorescence-stained target regions was performed by confocal laser scanning microscopy. RNA transcripts and components of the splicing machinery were found to be generally excluded from the interior of the territories occupied by the individual chromosomes. Based on these findings we present a model for the functional compartmentalization of the cell nucleus. According to this model the space between chromosome domains, including the surface areas of these domains, defines a three-dimensional network-like compartment, termed the interchromosome domain (ICD) compartment, in which transcription and splicing of mRNA occurs

The Herschel Exploitation of Local Galaxy Andromeda (HELGA) II: Dust and Gas in Andromeda

We present an analysis of the dust and gas in Andromeda, using Herschel images sampling the entire far-infrared peak. We fit a modified-blackbody model to ~4000 quasi-independent pixels with spatial resolution of ~140pc and find that a variable dust-emissivity index (beta) is required to fit the data. We find no significant long-wavelength excess above this model suggesting there is no cold dust component. We show that the gas-to-dust ratio varies radially, increasing from ~20 in the center to ~70 in the star-forming ring at 10kpc, consistent with the metallicity gradient. In the 10kpc ring the average beta is ~1.9, in good agreement with values determined for the Milky Way (MW). However, in contrast to the MW, we find significant radial variations in beta, which increases from 1.9 at 10kpc to ~2.5 at a radius of 3.1kpc and then decreases to 1.7 in the center. The dust temperature is fairly constant in the 10kpc ring (ranging from 17-20K), but increases strongly in the bulge to ~30K. Within 3.1kpc we find the dust temperature is highly correlated with the 3.6 micron flux, suggesting the general stellar population in the bulge is the dominant source of dust heating there. At larger radii, there is a weak correlation between the star formation rate and dust temperature. We find no evidence for 'dark gas' in M31 in contrast to recent results for the MW. Finally, we obtained an estimate of the CO X-factor by minimising the dispersion in the gas-to-dust ratio, obtaining a value of (1.9+/-0.4)x10^20 cm^-2 [K kms^-1]^-1.Comment: 19 pages, 18 figures. Submitted to ApJ April 2012; Accepted July 201

Mammographic screening before age 50 years in the UK: comparison of the radiation risks with the mortality benefits

Mammographic screening before age 50 years is less effective than at older ages and the associated radiation risks are higher. We estimated how many breast cancer deaths could be caused and how many could be prevented by a decade of annual two-view mammographic screening starting at ages 20, 30 and 40 years, respectively, in the UK; for all women, and for women with first-degree relatives affected with breast cancer. We extrapolated from a radiation risk model to estimate the number of radiation-induced breast cancer deaths, and used results from randomised trials, which suggest a reduction in breast cancer mortality of 10–20% in women invited to screening before age 50 years, to estimate the number of deaths that could be prevented. The net change in breast cancer deaths was defined as the number of radiation-induced deaths minus the number of prevented deaths. For all women, assuming a reduction in mortality from screening of 20%, a decade of annual screening was estimated to induce more deaths than it prevents if started at age 20 years and at age 30 years (net increase=0.86 and 0.37 breast cancer deaths, respectively, per 1000 women screened). The corresponding estimate for screening starting at age 40 years was a net decrease of 0.46 deaths/1000 women screened and a zero net change assuming a 10% mortality reduction. Results for women with first-degree relatives with breast cancer were generally in the same direction but, because their background incidence rates are higher, the net increases or decreases were greater. In conclusion, our estimates suggest that a decade of annual two-view mammographic screening before age 40 years would result in a net increase in breast cancer deaths, and that starting at age 40 years could result in a material net decrease only if breast cancer mortality is reduced by about 20% or more in women screened. Although these calculations were based on a number of uncertain parameters, in general, the conclusions were not altered when these parameters were varied within a feasible range

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study

BACKGROUND: Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. RESULTS: The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens

Bridging the data gaps in the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia using multi-parameter evidence synthesis

BACKGROUND: Collecting adequate information on key epidemiological indicators is a prerequisite to informing a public health response to reduce the impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia. Our goal was to overcome the acute data shortage typical of low/middle income countries using statistical modelling to estimate the national HCV prevalence and the distribution over transmission pathways as of the end of 2009. METHODS: Multi-parameter evidence synthesis methods were applied to combine all available relevant data sources - both direct and indirect - that inform the epidemiological parameters of interest. RESULTS: An estimated 454,000 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 392,000 to 535,000) HCV antibody-positive individuals were living in Malaysia in 2009; this represents 2.5% (95% CrI: 2.2-3.0%) of the population aged 15-64 years. Among males of Malay ethnicity, for 77% (95% CrI: 69-85%) the route of probable transmission was active or a previous history of injecting drugs. The corresponding proportions were smaller for male Chinese and Indian/other ethnic groups (40% and 71%, respectively). The estimated prevalence in females of all ethnicities was 1% (95% CrI: 0.6 to 1.4%); 92% (95% CrI: 88 to 95%) of infections were attributable to non-drug injecting routes of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalent number of persons living with HCV infection in Malaysia is estimated to be very high. Low/middle income countries often lack a comprehensive evidence base; however, evidence synthesis methods can assist in filling the data gaps required for the development of effective policy to address the future public health and economic burden due to HCV. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0564-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Adaptive Filtering Enhances Information Transmission in Visual Cortex

Sensory neuroscience seeks to understand how the brain encodes natural environments. However, neural coding has largely been studied using simplified stimuli. In order to assess whether the brain's coding strategy depend on the stimulus ensemble, we apply a new information-theoretic method that allows unbiased calculation of neural filters (receptive fields) from responses to natural scenes or other complex signals with strong multipoint correlations. In the cat primary visual cortex we compare responses to natural inputs with those to noise inputs matched for luminance and contrast. We find that neural filters adaptively change with the input ensemble so as to increase the information carried by the neural response about the filtered stimulus. Adaptation affects the spatial frequency composition of the filter, enhancing sensitivity to under-represented frequencies in agreement with optimal encoding arguments. Adaptation occurs over 40 s to many minutes, longer than most previously reported forms of adaptation.Comment: 20 pages, 11 figures, includes supplementary informatio

Accelerated in vivo proliferation of memory phenotype CD4+ T-cells in human HIV-1 infection irrespective of viral chemokine co-receptor tropism.

CD4(+) T-cell loss is the hallmark of HIV-1 infection. CD4 counts fall more rapidly in advanced disease when CCR5-tropic viral strains tend to be replaced by X4-tropic viruses. We hypothesized: (i) that the early dominance of CCR5-tropic viruses results from faster turnover rates of CCR5(+) cells, and (ii) that X4-tropic strains exert greater pathogenicity by preferentially increasing turnover rates within the CXCR4(+) compartment. To test these hypotheses we measured in vivo turnover rates of CD4(+) T-cell subpopulations sorted by chemokine receptor expression, using in vivo deuterium-glucose labeling. Deuterium enrichment was modeled to derive in vivo proliferation (p) and disappearance (d*) rates which were related to viral tropism data. 13 healthy controls and 13 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected subjects (CD4 143-569 cells/ul) participated. CCR5-expression defined a CD4(+) subpopulation of predominantly CD45R0(+) memory cells with accelerated in vivo proliferation (p = 2.50 vs 1.60%/d, CCR5(+) vs CCR5(-); healthy controls; P<0.01). Conversely, CXCR4 expression defined CD4(+) T-cells (predominantly CD45RA(+) naive cells) with low turnover rates. The dominant effect of HIV infection was accelerated turnover of CCR5(+)CD45R0(+)CD4(+) memory T-cells (p = 5.16 vs 2.50%/d, HIV vs controls; P<0.05), naïve cells being relatively unaffected. Similar patterns were observed whether the dominant circulating HIV-1 strain was R5-tropic (n = 9) or X4-tropic (n = 4). Although numbers were small, X4-tropic viruses did not appear to specifically drive turnover of CXCR4-expressing cells (p = 0.54 vs 0.72 vs 0.44%/d in control, R5-tropic, and X4-tropic groups respectively). Our data are most consistent with models in which CD4(+) T-cell loss is primarily driven by non-specific immune activation

Should physical activity recommendations be ethnicity-specific? Evidence from a cross-sectional study of south Asian and European men

Background Expert bodies and health organisations recommend that adults undertake at least 150 min.week−1 of moderate-intensity physical activity (MPA). However, the underpinning data largely emanate from studies of populations of European descent. It is unclear whether this level of activity is appropriate for other ethnic groups, particularly South Asians, who have increased cardio-metabolic disease risk compared to Europeans. The aim of this study was to explore the level of MPA required in South Asians to confer a similar cardio-metabolic risk profile to that observed in Europeans undertaking the currently recommended MPA level of 150 min.week−1.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Methods Seventy-five South Asian and 83 European men, aged 40–70, without cardiovascular disease or diabetes had fasted blood taken, blood pressure measured, physical activity assessed objectively (using accelerometry), and anthropometric measures made. Factor analysis was used to summarise measured risk biomarkers into underlying latent ‘factors’ for glycaemia, insulin resistance, lipid metabolism, blood pressure, and overall cardio-metabolic risk. Age-adjusted regression models were used to determine the equivalent level of MPA (in bouts of ≥10 minutes) in South Asians needed to elicit the same value in each factor as Europeans undertaking 150 min.week−1 MPA.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Findings For all factors, except blood pressure, equivalent MPA values in South Asians were significantly higher than 150 min.week−1; the equivalent MPA value for the overall cardio-metabolic risk factor was 266 (95% CI 185-347) min.week−1.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Conclusions South Asian men may need to undertake greater levels of MPA than Europeans to exhibit a similar cardio-metabolic risk profile, suggesting that a conceptual case can be made for ethnicity-specific physical activity guidance. Further study is needed to extend these findings to women and to replicate them prospectively in a larger cohort.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt